Stop fear-mongering people! We are in no way in the great depression and are not heading towards one. Lets face it...markets have it ups...and downs....and we are in a down. There is absolutely no comparison with the great depression....for instance production is today down ith 1%....in great depression it was down to 45%....unemployment today is 6%....during great depression it was over 25% and sofort...comon....people today are so used to the 'good times' that they no longer accept any smaller changes in economy. Anywas, just sit down, have a cup of coffee and wait for the next upswing...because it will come.
Allright, here is one of my favorite columnists I read on every day basis.....Mr. Gary Kaltbaum, an investment advisor. Here is an interesting article he recently wrote.
I just want to note that all the reactions we usually see at near term lows are being put in place. I did not say bear market bottom... and nothing is 100%. First off... above is TIME MAGAZINE!
Secondly, we have a certain someone on Bubblevision now saying to not own stocks for 5 years... that after being bullish all the way down and calling bottoms on every up day. Again, don't mean to pick on one person but he is the poster child.
Thirdly, end of world talk.
Fourth, local papers, front covers of everything are now in panic mode... passing by the 70s and heading right for the 30s.
Fifth, extreme bearish sentiment numbers - and I mean extreme - VIX, NEW LOWS VS NEW HIGHS, % OF BEARISH VS BULLISH ADVISORS... I can go on and on.
Sixth, major averages about as stretched from their norm as they have ever been... except for the 87 yonking!
Seventh, 8 out of the past 13 bearish market lows since 1949 have occurred in October.
Bottom line, we do not see this type of reaction at the tops. It is the reaction AFTER a big drop... after it has already happened.
Just outlining possibilities... and as I have said, looking for a reason to get a little bullish... and with everyone now bearish... what better reason to turn bullish as the crowd has been massively wrong at the most important junctures. Just because everyone is bearish does not give the market license to turn, but from my studies, it is an important ingredient to get a turn... at least in the near term. Hopefully, no one embraces any rally. If it is embraced too quickly, start worrying. I am now hoping to find a follow through day. Keep in mind, we have not even had the first day up, so be patient. I will alert you if this important characteristic shows up. If one does not show up, there will be nothing to do... and just remember, earnings season is now right around the corner and with the numbers out from SAP AG and Bank of America already, not sure it is going to be a pretty one as I expect a lot of guiding down.
Lastly, I make note that the fed did not lower fed funds but rates between banks are effectively down to 1% and below. On top of that, you now see the fed is backing commercial paper. Where do they continue to get this money from?
Should be another random and fun day.
